The Australian Climate Service has released a daunting National Climate Risk Assessment (NCRA), modelling the impacts if average global temperatures rise by 1.5, two and three degrees.
Property values, heatwave deaths, disaster recovery, sea levels, the natural environment and productivity are all among the slated impacts of Australia and the rest of the world failing to reduce and prepare for global warming.
Executive officer of the Eastern Alliance for Greenhouse Action (EAGA) Scott McKenry said it’s really important to have and start a broader national discussion that’s informed by a clear evidence base, which our policy and decision makers across all levels of government can work from.
“There’s no real surprises in them for someone who works on climate all day, every day but it is a very useful and probably the most robust synthesis of evidence that we have on impacts, vulnerabilities, hazards and risks,” he said.
“I think what’s also important to note is that the National Adaptation Plan (NAP) that accompanies what is quite a scary risk assessment, that plan is not a suite of policy solutions, responses and funded measures to address the risks in the NCRA,”
“That’s probably a big glaring gap for me, that there’s no funding attached to the plan that responds to the risk assessment.”
The EAGA represents the eastern Victorian councils of Maroondah, Yarra Ranges, Knox, Monash, Whitehorse, Stonnington, Glen Eira and Booroondara.
Mr McKenry said what he sees in the risk assessment is very consistent with councils’ own work trying to understand exposure to climate hazards and what the risks are to councils themselves and the community.
“I would say that local governments are at the forefront of the risks, as they are closest to the hazards … the rhetoric is very much basically that those closest to the risks are best placed to manage them,” he said.
“However local governments have just not been resourced to do that, they’re often involved and caught up in emergency response after hazard events,”
“Eventually, you really just need to go to a location and do much more place-based work that informs the investment-based response to (climate) adaptation.”
A 2023 report commissioned by the EAGA found that all councils, including the Outer East councils of Yarra Ranges, Maroondah, Knox and Cardinia, will see significantly increased damage costs from climate hazards alone:
Yarra Ranges spending on damages is estimated to rise by 199 per cent by 2050 and 332 per cent by 2100.
Maroondah’s costs will rise by 212 per cent by 2050 and 350 per cent by 2100.
178 per cent by 2050 and 308 per cent by 2100 for Knox.
Cardinia’s will have risen by 160 per cent by 2050 and 295 per cent by 2100.
Mr McKenry said the federal government has long just wanted to talk to 537 councils through the Australian Local Government Association (ALGA) but over time that approach has not provided the carefully coordinated conversation that we need to have on climate change issues.
“Victoria has long been the most progressive voice at the table and they’re often just dragged back to the centre by other less progressive states,” he said.
“A flow-on opportunity is provided by the NAP, we can set up a governance structure under the NAP based on a multi-level governance model that enables much more carefully coordinated conversation between the different spheres of government, working out the roles and responsibilities of each much more clearly.”
Some key predictions from the NCRA, using a two per cent increase in temperatures, include property values falling by $611 billion by 2050, over a millions homes falling into high-risk zones, annual spending on natural disasters multiplying by over five times current spending, a $211 billion in lost labour productivity and as many as 95 severe/extreme heatwave days a year. Heat-related deaths in Melbourne could rise by over 125 per cent, a figure which jumps to 2509 per cent at three degrees of warming.
Mr McKenry said the position of government has always been talking about what’s achievable and that’s probably not an acceptable framing for the emissions target.
“I think councils will be pretty disappointed with an announcement that it’s anything less than 70 per cent, which is also because previous attempts to model bottom-up what was achievable thoroughly underestimated what’s happened subsequently,” he said.
“Our own work sort of shows that councils can probably unlock around seven to 15 per cent of the abatement potential in a community through a range of different stuff they’re already doing and is not considered in the Climate Change Authority’s (CCA) advice to government, things like street and gardening organics programs through to planning controls or household upgrade programs,”
“We think it’s really important that the government adopts that science-based 1.5 (degrees) aligned target because otherwise they’re accepting that we will live in a high-risk future.”
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, alongside Treasurer Jim Chalmers and Minister for Climate Change and Energy Chris Bowen, announced on Thursday 18 September that Australia will adopt an emissions reduction target of between 62 per cent and 70 per cent on 2005 levels, matching the Climate Change Authority’s advice.
“This is the right target to protect our environment and secure our prosperity and to create jobs and economic growth for our nation,” the statement reads.
“The Government’s sensible, practical approach means our exporters, farmers and key industries will be able to compete and succeed in the world and our environment will be safe for future generations,”
“Vitally, this target range balances what the Commonwealth can achieve with existing policies and technologies, and what the country could achieve with a whole-of-economy and whole-of-society effort, a range enables greater ambition, recognising how quickly technology can change and the potential for even greater emissions reduction in the next decade.”
The target has drawn criticism from a number of organisations for not being ambitious enough, including Greenpeace, Australian Council of Social Service (ACOSS), Climate and Health Alliance (CAHA), Bushfire Survivors for Climate Action, Parents for Climate, Emergency Leaders for Climate Action, Climate Media Centre, the Intergenerational Fairness Coalition and the Climate Council.
Mr Bowen said in an earlier press conference, following the release of the NCRA, that one thing that is very clear in the risk assessment is that every Australian, regardless of where they live, has a lot at stake.
“Cascading, compounding, concurrent – that’s how the Australian Climate Service describes the impact of climate change on every community in our country,” he said.
“Cascading, it will get worse over time, compounding, each impact of climate change will make another impact worse and concurrent, communities will suffer the impacts of climate change in different ways at the same time and we’ll have a lot to manage,”
“There’s a lot in this report, and I certainly encourage all Australians to carefully go through it, it’s important that we don’t gild the lily or downplay its impacts in any way.”
The Coalition’s position on climate change remains a point of contention, with shadow minister for home affairs Andrew Hastie this week telling ABC Radio Perth that he would resign from the frontbench if the Coalition didn’t drop the target of net zero by 2050 and Nationals MP Barnaby Joyce having tabled a bill to scrap the target in July.
A joint statement from Opposition leader Sussan Ley and deputy leader Ted O’Brien said climate change is a global problem, and it demands global action.
“The Opposition has accepted a briefing from the Australian Climate Service and will examine the assumptions behind the report, including how projections have been made about health, property prices, insurance costs, and impacts on communities and businesses,” it reads.
“Australia cannot make a difference on its own, but we must play our part. The Coalition will always support sensible action to reduce emissions, strengthen resilience, and protect communities,”
“Our nation has the capacity and resources to meet the challenge of climate change with the right policies and priorities.”
