Australia could be set to elect a minority federal government, according to political expert Dr Zareh Ghazarian.
The head-of-politics at Monash University predicts a “very tight electoral race” for the 3 May election, with neither the Labor Government or Coalition opposition certain to govern in their own right.
“Labor can’t afford to lose seats as it won government with a very slim majority in 2022.
“Losing a couple of electorates may mean Anthony Albanese becomes a one-term prime minister.”
On the other hand, the Coalition – despite a “bit of bounce” in the polls – is coming from “too far back to claw back all of the seats”.
Cost-of-living will continue to be the main focus during the election campaign, along with energy, health care, education and infrastructure, Dr Ghazarian says.
“The key difference between the major parties is how they are going to address cost-of-living.”
In recent days, Labor has unveiled a round of tax cuts from next year and electricity subsidies. In contrast, the Coalition has pledged fuel excise cuts.
“Cost-of-living has been something people have been talking about.
“It has been dominating the headlines and hasn’t gone away with talk of inflation, interest rates and housing affordability.”
Dr Ghazarian predicts the marginal seat of Casey will be a battleground of sorts and is one the Liberals would be looking to hold as a sign of confidence for the party.
“One of the most interesting things about Casey electorally is the margin that’s on. I think it’s under two per cent, Anthony Green’s calculator suggests it’s 1.4 per cent so it makes Casey one of the most marginal seats that the Coalition holds, and one of the most marginal seats in Victoria,” he said.
“So Casey is going to be a real battleground electorate, where I would expect a lot of attention to be placed by the major party’s leaders and candidates of all sorts.”
At the 2022 election, the Liberal Party’s primary vote fell by around nine per cent, arguably making it one of its “lowest ebbs”.
“I’m not sure if the Liberal Party will perform as badly as they did in 2022 so any increase in their primary vote, initially towards the Liberal Party, would make this a much easier seat for the party to hold on to.”
The outer east of Melbourne as a whole will be a focal point for the Liberal Party in particular because Dr Ghazarian said much of its “core constituency” has turned away and its “losing ground”.
“The Liberal Party has a lot of work to do to reconnect with voters that, for whatever reason, turned away from it at the 2022 election.”
Since the creation of the Casey electorate in 1969, Labor has held the seat only twice for a single term each.
Dr Ghazarian views this election as “make or break” for the Liberal Party and overall confidence in its ability to govern.
“If the Liberal Party can’t hold on to Casey, it’s going to have a really difficult time to win government,” he said.
“If it loses seats like Casey, it’s a signal to the Liberal Party that there are some serious concerns that voters have about the direction of the party.
“But assuming that is the case that the Liberal Party loses, they can’t afford to lose the seat, because if they lose the seat, then they just drift further away from winning the number of seats they need to claw back and be competitive and have a chance to win in government.”
