By Parker McKenzie
While the bookies are tipping the Labor Party to return to government, several seats in Melbourne’s outer southeast are expected to be competitive when Victorians go to the polls on November 26.
The Labor Party is the clear favourite to win the state election according to betting agency Sportsbet, with a $1.05 return for every dollar bet on Daniel Andrews being sworn in as Premier, compared to $10 for Matthew Guy and $101 for any other party.
A Labor majority is paying $1.10, while a Labor minority, Coalition majority and Coalition minority pay $12, $14 and $15 per dollar bet respectively.
Sportsbet is predicting Bayswater to be a tight race, with current MP Jackson Taylor at $1.80 and Ferntree Gully MP and Liberal candidate for Bayswater Nick Wakeling paying $1.98. An independent win currently sits at $14.
In Monbulk, Sportsbet expects the seat to be held by Labor, with their candidate Daniela De Martino paying $1.05 compared to $9 longshot odds for Liberal candidate Gareth Ward. Over at TAB, the odds are narrower but tell a similar story, with Mr Ward at $5 and Ms De Martino at $1.15.
Shadow Minister for Education David Hodgett is expected to hold onto his seat in Croydon according to Sportsbet, paying $1.45 against $2.65 for Labor candidate Sorina Grasso.
It’s a similar story in Evelyn, where a bet on Bridget Vallence to hold her seat is paying $1.20. Labor candidate Lorna Dent is an outside chance at $4.25.
With maybe the best odds of the lot, Sportsbet is paying $1.35 for Shadow Minister for Sports Cindy McLeish to hold her seat for the Liberal Party, despite the Labor Party having no declared candidate 25 days before election day. The Labor Party, which will announce its candidate “imminently”, is paying $3.05. TAB is paying $1.42 for the Coalition and $2.75 for Labor win in what was one of the most marginal seats in the state at the 2019 election.
Former Gembrook MP Brad Battin, whose seat was abolished ahead of the election, is the favourite to win Berwick at $1.35.
